Author(s): | Pomeranz, Kenneth |
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Reviewer(s): | Lal, Deepak |
Published by EH.NET (October 2000)
Kenneth Pomeranz, The Great Divergence: China, Europe and the Making of the
Modern World Economy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2000. x
+382 pp. $39.95 (cloth); ISBN: 0-691-00543-5.
Reviewed for EH.NET by Deepak Lal, Department of Economics, University of
California, Los Angeles.
Kenneth Pomeranz (Professor of History at the University of California,
Irvine) has written an important and scholarly book. Yet, despite his
scholarship, at the end of the day I was not convinced by his basic thesis.
The question he asks is one that has tantalized scholars for over a century:
Why did Europe alone of the great Eurasian civilizations escape the binding
land constraint and initiate that process of unbounded Promethean intensive
growth which has transformed humankind’s economic prospects, so that, mass
structural poverty need no longer be the universal scourge it has been for
millennia? As a scholar of China he uses the comparative method to see if any
advantages can be discerned which led core areas in Europe to diverge so
markedly from the core areas primarily in southern China, but also in Japan and
India. In this task, he brilliantly deconstructs the various materialist
explanations that have been advanced by economic historians to explain this
great divergence.
He shows quite convincingly that, until the turn of the eighteenth century,
there was no marked divergence in living standards between the Chinese and
European cores. He then painstakingly shows with an impressive command of the
Chinese literature (much of it recent) that various purported differences in
demography, ecology, accumulation and the pervasiveness of markets which have
been claimed to have given the Europeans an inherent advantage do not stand up
to scrutiny. As late as 1750, the similarities between the Yangtze Delta and
England were greater than the differences. So why did England and subsequently
Europe not follow the labor-intensive path of the “industrious revolution” of
their Far Eastern cousins, and instead take the capital-intensive path of the
industrial revolution?
His answer is in two parts. The first is that coal, which fueled the English
industrial revolution, was geographically not as readily available to the
eighteenth-century core in southern China, since it was concentrated in the
Northwest. The spectacular development of the coal and iron complex in the
northwestern China in the eleventh century, documented by Hartwell, was
dismantled and depopulated by the invaders of the twelfth century, and by the
fifteenth century when the region was stabilized China’s economic and
demographic center of gravity had shifted to the South. He notes that,
retrospectively, the returns to linking the Yangtze delta with the northwestern
coal deposits were huge, but that these returns were invisible ex ante, and it
is not clear what could have been done to realize them. But this explanation
surely will not do, for the Chinese state had acted under the Sung to
disseminate the new wet rice technology to southern China. If the coal-steam
technology had been available to China — as it was in principle but not
developed for reasons to be taken up below — could the powerful bureaucratic
authoritarian state that has ruled China not have taken the necessary action to
link these two geographical regions under its sway?
Nor does the relative geographical distribution of coal reserves in the various
Eurasian civilizations bear up as the decisive factor in the European
divergence, if we consider their location in another Eurasian civilization —
India. Its core lay in the eastern Gangetic plain — in modern Bihar — because
it was here that they found the iron deposits they needed for the iron
implements needed to clear the forests and the iron ploughshares for deep
ploughing. We now know that this area also contains India’s coal reserves. But
despite this, no one has claimed that the Indians could have developed the
coal-steam industrial revolution. By contrast, we know China had nearly all the
ingredients of this revolution in place by the eleventh century, and it still
did not take place. It is highly dubious that the geographical distribution of
its coal reserves had anything to with this lapse.
The second part of Pomeranz’s answer about the causes of the great divergence
is Europe’s discovery and exploitation — partly through trade — of the New
World. There can be no doubt that this extended Europe’s land frontier. But how
decisive was it and why could China not do something similar?
Pomeranz, himself in his last chapter in a section called “Comparisons and
Calculations: What Do the Numbers Mean?” admits the increment to the supply of
land- intensive products from the New World to Europe could not have been
large, but then uses various forms of handwaving including an appeal to chaos
theory to justify his thesis that they were the basis of the great divergence!
But it is the larger question — why did China not seek to exploit areas where
free land was available overseas to overcome its growing land constraint —
which points to the basic flaw in Pomeranz’s and other purely materialist
explanations for the great divergence. As Pomeranz shows, there were empty
lands in South East Asia which “like the post-contact New World, was sparsely
populated and capable of supplying vast quantities of land-intensive resources
that were in demand ‘back home.’ Chinese went there in significant numbers, but
South East Asia never became for coastal China what the New World was for
western Europe” (p. 200). Why? Because unlike Europe’s New World empires, “the
Chinese merchants . . . established themselves in South East Asia without state
backing” (p.200). This is the crucial point. To see why, it is important to
note two important points not even taken into account by Pomeranz.
First, under Kublai Khan the Chinese had created a powerful navy. The famous
admiral Cheng Ho took his “treasure ships” on expeditions to the India Ocean in
the fifteenth century, and William McNeill (The Pursuit of Power:
Technology, Armed Force, and Society since A.D. 1000, University of Chicago
Press, 1982) notes that these expeditions eclipsed anything that the later
Portuguese explorers could muster. Nor did Cheng Ho desist from coercion. He
sealed Chinese suzerainty everywhere he went if necessary by force. McNeill
argues that if the Chinese had continued to expand their overseas empire “a
Chinese Columbus might well have discovered the west coast of America half a
century before the real Columbus blundered into Hispaniola in his vain search
for Cathay. Assuredly Chinese ships were seaworthy enough to sail across the
Pacific and back. Indeed, if the like of Cheng Ho’s expeditions had been
renewed, Chinese navigators might well have rounded Africa and discovered
Europe before Prince Henry the Navigator died (1460)” (p.45).
But instead — the second point — after 1433 the Chinese abandoned their navy
and began to restrict foreign trade and contacts. The shipbuilding and
sea-going skills thereafter degenerated, and China continued in relative
isolation until the “new barbarians” came knocking at its doors in the
nineteenth century.
To understand this shift in policy and the accompanying closing of the Chinese
mind — and the comparable one in Japan following its adoption of the policy
sakoku under the Tokugawa — one has to look at what I have elsewhere (in
Unintended Consequences) called the “cosmological beliefs” of the
various Eurasian civilizations. As these cosmological beliefs are also related
to the different polities, they also help to explain the divergences in state
policy. It would take me too far afield to outline this story here. But without
bringing the mind back in, there is no way to explain China’s failure to
generate the coal-steam industrial revolution and the overseas empire, which
Pomeranz with so many other economic historians rightly see as the proximate
causes of the European miracle.
The great historian of Chinese science, Joseph Needham, used to maintain that
the rise of the West could not be explained in terms of a single or a few
factors but was due to a “package.” Pomeranz’s greatest service is to show that
the material differences in this “package” cannot account for the great
divergence — particularly once one discounts his own materialist differences
as being unconvincing. So as both Weber, and more recently Landes have
maintained, we are back to culture. Both, however, in my judgment got the date
of this cultural divergence wrong. I have argued in Unintended
Consequences that it goes back to at least the sixth century. But that is
another story.
One indication of this cultural divergence is provided by a visit to the great
archeological museum in Xian. The first few rooms of the collection show the
great cultural and scientific efflorescence in China from neolithic times to
the middle ages, and then in room after room there are the same shapes, the
same forms continuing in unending repetition — at least to this untrained eye.
It is to see a civilization that seemed to have seen itself as reaching
perfection and then being frozen in aspic from about the sixteenth century. By
contrast in England this was to be the age of Shakespeare, followed by those of
Locke, Newton, Hume and Smith. The sheer intellectual curiosity and
creativeness of these centuries preceding the industrial revolution are in
stark contrast to what was happening in the other great Eurasian civilizations.
If we are to understand the modern world it is this great divergence which
needs to be explained, and which Pomeranz’s book does not even touch upon.
Deepak Lal is James S. Coleman Professor of International Development Studies,
University of California, Los Angeles, and the author of Unintended
Consequences: The Impact of Factor-Endowments, Culture and Politics on Long Run
Economic Performance (MIT Press, 1998). A third collection of his essays
entitled Unfinished Business, was published by Oxford University Press
in 1999.
Subject(s): | Economic Development, Growth, and Aggregate Productivity |
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Geographic Area(s): | Asia |
Time Period(s): | General or Comparative |