Fri Dec 12 01:59:22 EST 2003
Dear Subscriber,
Today we start what is
intended to be a new series of publications
to be posted on this list in the coming weeks or
months. Even if it may sound a little bit windy,
let's call this series "Inquiries into world history".
For the first issue, we have the great pleasure
of welcoming a contribution by Peter Turchin which is
entitled:
"Scientific prediction in historical sociology:
Ibn Khaldoun meets Al Saoud."
Peter's paper could not be better suited for starting
this series for it embodies all characteristics that we
would like to attach to this project. First, it is well
focused on a given problem, namely the future
of the monarchy in Saudi Arabia, secondly it describes
a specific mechanism by which this country may be
critically affected,
and thirdly (and perhaps most importantly)
it offers testable predictions.
Furthermore, it is worthwhile noting that Peter is
the author of "Historical Dynamics," a
related book published
quite recently by Princeton University Press.
Attached to this message there are two files:
the first contains the <a href="http://www.eh.net/lists/Khaldun_Saud.pdf"> paper in pdf
format</a>,
the second contains additional<a href="http://www.eh.net/lists/Khaldun_Saud.xls"> data in
excel format</a>.
Needless to say, we would welcome any contribution
which similarly would offer some testable
predictions. Note that predictions can be of two
sorts: forecasts (as for the above paper) or structural
predictions about a system or a phenomenon
which has not yet been investigated or observed.
Francesco and myself are delighted to
send you our best Season's Greetings,
Bertrand
---------------
Bertrand Roehner
LPTHE, University Paris 7
2 place Jussieu, 75005 Paris, France
Website: http://www.lpthe.jussieu.fr/~roehner
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