From roehner at lpthe.jussieu.fr  Fri Dec 12 01:59:22 2003
From: roehner at lpthe.jussieu.fr (Bertrand Roehner)
Date: Wed Nov 16 18:06:30 2005
Subject: QH.R: (no subject)
Message-ID: <3FD9674A.834C4CC4@lpthe.jussieu.fr>

Dear Subscriber, 
 
Today we start what is 
intended to be a new series of publications 
to be posted on this list in the coming weeks or 
months. Even if it may sound a little bit windy, 
let's call this series "Inquiries into world history". 
 
For the first issue, we have the great pleasure 
of welcoming a contribution by Peter Turchin which is 
entitled: 
"Scientific prediction in historical sociology: 
Ibn Khaldoun meets Al Saoud." 
 
Peter's paper could not be better suited for starting 
this series for it embodies all characteristics that we 
would like to attach to this project. First, it is well 
focused on a given problem, namely the future 
of the monarchy in Saudi Arabia, secondly it describes 
a specific mechanism by which this country may be 
critically affected, 
and thirdly (and perhaps most importantly) 
it offers testable predictions. 
Furthermore, it is worthwhile noting that Peter is 
the author of "Historical Dynamics,"  a 
related book published 
quite recently by Princeton University Press. 
 
Attached to this message there are two files: 
the first contains the <a href="http://www.eh.net/lists/Khaldun_Saud.pdf"> paper in pdf
format</a>,
the second contains additional<a href="http://www.eh.net/lists/Khaldun_Saud.xls"> data in
excel format</a>.
 
Needless to say, we would welcome any contribution 
which similarly would offer some testable 
predictions. Note that predictions can be of two 
sorts: forecasts (as for the above paper) or structural 
predictions about a system or a phenomenon 
which has not yet been investigated or observed. 
 
Francesco and myself are delighted to 
send you our best Season's Greetings, 
 
 Bertrand 
 
--------------- 
Bertrand Roehner 
LPTHE, University Paris 7 
2 place Jussieu, 75005 Paris, France 
 
Website: http://www.lpthe.jussieu.fr/~roehner 
 
 
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