EH.T: Economic History of Fiscal Stimulus Packages

[Robert Whaples]

By now, I have not surprisingly seen numerous pronouncements and
assessments in the popular media regarding the evidence from history on
the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus packages in contributing to 
economic recovery.  Some seem to suggest little impact of such stimulus 
packages. For example, this was the assessment of Amity Shlaes in the 
Washington Post Outlook Section a week ago Sunday. On the other hand, 
some of the policy pronouncements coming from both the President and the 
Congress assert that unless there is a stimulus package on the scale of 
800 Billion plus in U.S.$, there will be dire economic consequences, 
implying some ability to assess the counterfactual of what would happen 
in the absence of an $800 Billion plus stimulus package.

Today's (Tues., Feb.12, 2009)Washington Post Business section has a lead 
article on debates among economists and economic historians over whether 
FDR's new deal made any contribution to recovery from the great 
depression in the U.S. Barry Eichengreen is quoted: "The Fiscal Impulse 
was small relative to what was needed.."  Christina Romer is quoted with 
a similar assessment ("The actual increases in government spending and 
the government budget deficit ewere small relative to the size of the 
economy.") and the Post article goes on to suggest that in her view the 
current proposed stimulus package is much bigger than anything Roosevelt 
tried---"Its a completely different animal in terms of size."  Then 
Gregory Mankiw is cited as saying that because New deal spending was 
tepid, "spending as stimulus is really betting on a theory rather than 
on empirical evidence" and that's why economists are so divided.

Could anyone suggest  "academic" surveys and assessments that have
been done by economic historians regarding the effectiveness of
countercyclical fiscal stimulus packages or be willing to offer their 
own potted assessment?  I suppose in part I am asking for  assessments 
that go beyond just the U.S. New Deal/1930s case.

Thanks,
David Mitch