Thu Apr 8 12:09:17 EDT 2004
ABSTRACTS IN ECONOMIC HISTORY
(c) 2004 EH.Net
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Name: John Komlos
Email: jk at econhist.de
Institution: University of Munich
Co-author: Christian Stoegbauer
Title: Averting the Nazi Seizure of Power: A Counterfactual Thought Experiment
Internet Address of abstracted work: not available
By mail:
Department of Economics, University of Munich Ludwigstrasse 33/IV, D-80539
Munich Germany
Language: English
Abstract:
The Great Depression in Germany led to the radicalization of the
electorate, leading the country and then the world into the darkest days of
Western Civilization. Could it have been otherwise? This paper explores
whether the NSDAP takeover might have been averted with a fiscal policy
that lowered the unemployment rate in those parts of Germany where their
support rose most rapidly. A counterfactual simulation model based on
estimates of the relationship between unemployment and the radical vote at
the electoral district level provides a framework for considering how much
lower unemployment would have to have been in those districts to prevent
the NSDAP from becoming a formidable political force in Germany. Budget
neutrality is maintained, so that the simulations do not depend on an
expanded fiscal policy. The results indicate that such a policy could well
have averted the NSDAP's seizure of power, and the catastrophe that
followed in its wake.
Bibliography: Komlos, John and Christian Stoegbauer. "Averting the Nazi Seizure of Power: A Counterfactual Thought Experiment." Working Paper, University of Munich 2004.
Subject: Q
Geographical Area: 4
Country/Region: Germany
Time Period: 8
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