EH.Net Abstracts in Economic History

                ABSTRACTS IN ECONOMIC HISTORY
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Name:  Gary D. Libecap
Email: glibecap at bpa.arizona.edu
Institution: University of Arizona

Co-author: Zeynep Kocabiyik Hansen, University of Arizona

Title: "Rain Follows the Plow:" The Climate Information Problem and
Homestead Failure in the Upper Great Plains, 1890-1925

Internet Address of abstracted work: not available

By mail:
Gary D. Libecap
Karl Eller Center, Rm. 202 McClelland Hall
University of Arizona
Tucson, AZ 85721

Language: English

Abstract:
In the late 19th and early 20th centuries, the North American agricultural
frontier moved for the first time into semi-arid regions where farming was
vulnerable to drought. Farmers who migrated to the region had to adapt
their crops, techniques, and farm sizes to better fit the environment. But
there was very incomplete information for making these adjustments, and
ultimately they were insufficient: too many small, dry land wheat farms
were founded, only to be abandoned in the midst of drought. In this paper,
we examine why homestead failure occurred in the Great Plains, by analyzing
two episodes in western Kansas in 1893-94 and in eastern Montana in
1917-21. We focus on the weather information problem facing migrants to the
region. We examine the learning process by which migrants mis-interpreted
new rainfall information and failed to adequately perceive drought.
Homesteaders had neither an analytical framework nor sufficient data for
predicting fluctuations in rainfall. Knowledge of the climate was primitive
and the underlying mechanisms triggering droughts were not understood.
Long-term precipitation records did not exist. Because of very limited
climate information, homesteaders had to rely on heuristics for evaluating
current precipitation data in migration and farming decisions. This
practice could lead to mistakes. They gambled on the continuation of
previous wet periods, a possible climate change due to cultivation, and on
the optimistic opinions of dryfarming "experts." Dryfarming doctrine argued
that moisture could be saved in the soil, allowing small wheat farms to
endure any dry period. Accordingly, homesteaders discounted new information
indicating the onslaught of drought. The subsequent waves of homestead
busts that swept the region during severe droughts were part of the
adjustment toward agricultural techniques, crops, and farm sizes more
appropriate for a semi-arid region.

Bibliography: Libecap, Gary D. and Zeynep Kocabiyik Hansen.  "'Rain Follows
the Plow:' The Climate Information Problem and Homestead Failure in the
Upper Great Plains, 1890-1925

Subject: A
Geographical Area: 7
Country/Region: U.S./Canada
Time Period: 8

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