EH.Net Abstracts in Economic History

Developing Countries
            EHS Abstract Submission
                    (c) 1996 EH.Net
-----------------------------------------------------------
            Name:    Peter H. Lindert
             Email:    phlindert at ucdavis.edu
       Institution:    Department of Economics, UC Davis

         Co-author:  None

             Title:  Soil Degradation and Agricultural Change in Two
                        Developing Countries

  Internet Address
of abstracted work:  Not available on the Internet

           By mail:
                     Agricultural History Center
                     University of California
                     Davis, CA 95616
                     USA

          Language:  English

          Abstract:
        What is well known about trends in soil degradation is
not well based.  What pass for trend estimates lack any data
before the present.  Raising the standard of evidence requires a
more careful empirical design.	Fortunately, new time-series data
on soil conditions in China and Indonesia since the 1930s allow
us to test broad assertions about soil degradation.  Soil organic
matter and nitrogen appear to have declined on cultivated lands
in both countries.  Total phosphorus and potassium have generally
risen.	Alkalinity and acidity have fluctuated, with no overall
worsening.  The topsoil layer has not gotten thinner.
        Some of these mixed trends have more effect on yields
than others.  China's patterns show that the decline in a soil's
organic matter and nitrogen makes little difference, presumably
because fertilizers can substitute for the soil endowment.  More
relevant are pH and total potassium, for which the trends are
better.
        While the growth of poor rural populations degrades the
soil, economic development may improve the soil in three ways
explored here:	(1) Taking all soil-farming feedbacks into
account, the shift in food demand away from staples toward
legumes and animal products is likely to replenish soil
nutrients.  (2) Development means cheaper capital and clearer
property rights, which improve conservation.  (3) Urbanization
and industrialization raise the productivity of soils at the
urban fringe.  Data from China suggest that this effect is strong
enough to cancel the loss of farm soil endowment from urban
encroachment.

      Bibliography:  Working Paper #82, 1996.  To get paper please
                                 send a request and $5 US.

           Subject:        A
 Geographical Area:  2
    Country/Region:    China, Indonesia
       Time Period:      9