EH.Net Abstracts in Economic History

                EHS Abstract Submission
                    (c) 1996 EH.Net
-----------------------------------------------------------
              Name:  Robert Whaples
             Email:  whaples at wfu.edu
       Institution:  Wake Forest University
 
         Co-author:  Jac Heckelman, Wake Forest University

 
             Title:  Political Business Cycles Before the Great
Depression
 
  Internet Address
of abstracted work:  
 
           By mail:  
                     Dept of Economics
                     Wake Forest University
                     Winston-Salem, NC 27109
                     USA
 
          Language:  English
 
          Abstract:
   We test for the existence of political business cycles in the
pre-New Deal era (1869 to 1929) using annual estimates of nominal
GNP, real GNP, and the price deflator which were recently
constructed by Balke and Gordon and by Romer.  We assume that
each of the three macroeconomic indicators follows a covariance
stationary process, which can be estimated by a finite
autoregressive regression.   We find weak support for the
hypothesis that real GNP rose in anticipation of presidential
elections (but only before 1896), and no support for the
hypothesis that the inflation rate differed in election years.

 
Bibliography:  Whaples, Robert and Jack Heckelman.  "Political 
Business Cycles Before the Great Depression."  Economic Letters, 
forthcoming.
 
           Subject:  V
 Geographical Area:  7
    Country/Region:  USA
       Time Period:  7