Fall 1999 Reading List J. Williamson, 216 Littauer
jwilliam@kuznets.fas.harvard.edu Tel 617-495-2438
Office hours: Tuesday 12:30-2:30
ECONOMICS 2390a
STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION IN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE:
LATIN AMERICA AND ASIA
There's a lot of reading here packed into eleven lectures! But remember, you are only expected to read those with
an "*". Even among these, read selectively. Try reading something from each section, and try reading everything
from one section. But don't try to read everything in every section. You won't have time. All of the required (*)
readings for this half of the course can be found in Littauer on reserve. In addition, a packet of the reading for this
half of the course -- including that not required -- is available for copying with Claudia Napolilli (Littauer 214)
should you wish to borrow it for copying. Finally, and most important, the required readings can be
downloaded from the course home page. Simply go to the Department of Economics website
http://www.economics.harvard.edu/.
CONVERGENCE VERSUS DIVERGENCE IN THE VERY LONG RUN
Section 1 [September 27]
*R. C. Allen, ``The Great Divergence: Wages and Prices in Europe, 1375-1913,'' paper presented to the Economic
History Association Meetings, Durham, North Carolina (September 25-27, 1998).
*K. O'Rourke and J. G. Williamson, Globalization and History (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1999): 5-28.
*L. Pritchett, ``Divergence, Big Time,'' Journal of Economic Perspectives (Summer 1997): 3-17.
INDUSTRIALIZATION, GLOBALIZATION AND A NEW INTERNATIONAL ORDER
Section 2 [September 29]
Industrialization, Transport Costs and Trade
*W. A. Lewis, The Evolution of the International Economic Order (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1978).
*O'Rourke and Williamson, Globalization and History: 29-75.
R. E. Lucas, The Industrial Revolution: Past and Future (mimeo, February 1998), 83 pages..
Section 3 [October 4]
Globalization and Factor Flows
*O'Rourke and Williamson, Globalization and History: 119-66; 207-45.
M. Obstfeld and A. Taylor, Global Capital Markets: Integration, Crisis, and Growth (Cambridge: Cambridge
University Press, 1999): 34-87.
R. E. Lucas, ``Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries?'' American Economic Review (May
1990): 92-6.
FIVE TOPICS ON LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMIC HISTORY
If you need it, a very concise and brief background on Latin American economic history can be found in
T. E. Skidmore and P. H. Smith, Modern Latin America, 3rd ed. (New York: Oxford, 1992): 27-53.
Section 4 [October 6]

Late 19th Century Latin American Export Booms and Labor Supply Responses
*E. Cardoso and A. Helwege, Latin America's Economy (Cambridge, MA: MIT, 1992): 37-45.
*J. G. Williamson, ``Real Wages, Inequality and Globalization in Latin America Before 1940,'' Revista de Historia
(1999 forthcoming).
*A. Taylor, "Mass Migration to Distant Southern Shores: Argentina and Australia 1870-1939," in T. J. Hatton and
J. G. Williamson (eds.), Migration and the International Labor Market (London: Routledge, 1992): 91-
115.
T. J. Hatton and J. G. Williamson, "Latecomers to Mass Emigration: The Latin Experience," in Migration and the
International Labor Market: 55-71.
A. Taylor and J. G. Williamson, "Capital Flows to the New World as an Intergenerational Transfer," Journal of
Political Economy (April 1994): 348-71.
Section 5 [October 13]
Early Warning Signals Before the Crash: Capital and Commodity Markets 1913-29
*C. P. Kindleberger, The World Depression 1920-1939 (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1986, revised
ed.): 70-87, 136-41.
*A. Taylor, "External Dependence, Demographic Burdens, and Argentine Economic Decline After the Belle
Epoque," Journal of Economic History (December 1992): 907-36.
A. Taylor, "Debt, Dependence and the Demographic Transition: Latin America into the Next Century," World
Development (1995): 869-79.
C. F. Diaz-Alejandro, Essays on the Economic History of the Argentine Republic (New Haven: Yale, 1970): 51-
66.
After the Crash: The Great Depression in Latin America
*D. Diakosavvas and P. L. Scandizzo, "Trends in the Terms of Trade of Primary Commodities, 1900-1982: The
Controversy and Its Origins," Economic Development and Cultural Change (January 1991): 231-64.
A. Maddison, Two Crises: Latin America and Asia 1920-1938 and 1973-1983 (Paris: OECD, 1985): 13-44.
Sections 6 and 7 [October 18 and 20]
Legacies of the Great Depression: Import Substitution, Dependency and Populism
*V. Corbo, "Development Strategies and Policies in Latin America: A Historical Perspective," International
Center for Economic Growth, Occasional Paper No. 22 (April 1992).
*A. M. Taylor, ``On the Costs of Inward-Looking Development: Price Distortions, Growth, and Divergence in
Latin America,'' Journal of Economic History (March 1998): 1-28.
*J. D. Sachs and A. Warner, ``Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration,'' Brookings Papers on
Economic Activity (Washington, D. C.: Brookings, 1995): 1-52 and 61-64.
J. M. Campa, "Exchange Rates and Economic Recovery in the 1930s: An Extension to Latin America," Journal of
Economic History (September 1990): 677-82.
A. O. Krueger, ``Trade Policy and Economic Development: How We Learn,'' American Economic Review
(March 1997): 1-22.
A. Vamvakidis, ``How Robust Is the Growth-Openness Connection?,'' in International Integration and Economic
Growth, Harvard PhD thesis (1997): 8-39.
G. M. Meier and D. Seers (eds.), Pioneers in Development (Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 1984): 173-204.
C. F. Diaz-Alejandro, "Latin America in the 1930s," in R. Thorp (ed), Latin America in the 1930s (New York:
Macmillan, 1984): 17-49.
Section 8 [October 25]
19th Century Investment Demand, Savings Shortfalls, and Debt at the Periphery

*O'Rourke and Williamson, Globalization and History: Chps. 11 and 12.
M. Edelstein, Overseas Investment in the Age of High Imperialism (New York: Columbia University Press,
1982): Chps. 1, 2, 7 and 13.
Debt Crises and Default in the Past: Deja Vu and Lessons from Latin History
*C. F. Diaz-Alejandro, "Stories of the 1930s for the 1980s," in P. Armella, et al. (eds), Financial Policies and the
World Capital Market: The Problem of Latin America (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1983): 5-
40.
A. Warner, "Mexico's Investment Collapse: Debt or Oil?," Journal of International Money and Finance (1994):
239-56.
B. Eichengreen and R. Portes, "Debt and Default in the 1930s," European Economic Review (June 1986): 599-
640.
S. Ozler, "Have Commercial Banks Ignored History?," American Economic Review (June 1993): 608-20.
P. H. Lindert and P. J. Morton, "How Sovereign Debt Has Worked," in J. Sachs (ed), Developing Country Debt
and the World Economy (Chicago: NBER, 1989): 225-35.
B. Eichengreen and A. Fishlow, ``Contending with Capital Flows: What Is Different About the 1990s?''
Occasional Paper, Council on Foreign Relations (New York: 1996).
TWO TOPICS FROM ASIAN ECONOMIC HISTORY
I have tried to select two Asian economic history topics which seemed high priority and also
complemented the material presented elsewhere in the course. The first topic deals with Asian globalization
experience since 1850, and the second with the Asian demographic transition since 1950, topics central to the
agenda in the Asia Development Bank's Emerging Asia (Manila: 1997). Although it is not required, background
reading on Asian economic history can be found in: W. A. Lewis, Growth and Fluctuations 1870-1913 (London:
Allen and Unwin, 1978): 194-224; or E. Jones, L. Frost and C. White, Coming Full Circle: An Economic History
of the Pacific Rim (Oxford 1993).
Section 9 [October 27]
Globalization in the Beginning: Japan Rejects Autarky in 1858
*J. R. Huber, "Effect on Prices of Japan's Entry into World Commerce after 1858," Journal of Political
Economy (May/June 1971): 614-28.
Globalization After 1870: Did Asian Monsoons Determine Chicago Wheat Prices?
*A. J. H. Latham and L. Neal, "The International Market in Rice and Wheat 1868-1914," Economic History
Review 36 (May 1983): 260-75.
L. Brandt, "Chinese Agriculture and the International Economy 1870-1913: A Reassessment," Explorations in
Economic History 22 (April 1985): 168-80.
Globalization and De-Globalization Before 1940: Its Impact on Inequality in Pre-Industrial Asia
*J. G. Williamson, ``Globalization, Factor Prices and Living Standards in Asia Before 1940,'' in A. J. H. Latham
(ed.), Asia Pacific Dynamism 1500-2000 (Routledge: forthcoming).
Section 10 [November 1]
Asia's Demographic Transition Since 1950: Impact and Accumulation Connections
*D. Bloom and J. G. Williamson, ``Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia,'' World
Bank Economic Review (September 1998): 419-55.

*M. Higgins and J. G. Williamson, "Age Structure Dynamics in Asia and Foreign Capital,'' Population and
Development Review (June 1997): 261-93.
INEQUALITY AND WORLD DEVELOPMENT
Section 11 [November 3]
Who Gains from Growth? Regions, Fat Cohorts, Kuznets Curves, Culture and Path Dependence
*M. Higgins and J. G. Williamson, ``Explaining Inequality the World Round: Cohort Size, Kuznets Curves, and
Openness,'' NBER Working Paper 7224, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass. (July
1999).
J. G. Williamson, Inequality, Poverty and History (Cambridge: Basil Blackwell, 1991): Chps. 1-3.
N. Leff, "Economic Development and Regional Inequality in Brazil," Quarterly Journal of Economics (May
1972): 243-62.
Who Gains from Trade? Globalization and Inequality
*J. G. Williamson, ``Globalization, Labor Markets and Policy Backlash in the Past,'' Journal of Economic
Perspectives (Fall 1998): 51-72.
A. Wood, "How Trade Hurt Unskilled Workers," Journal of Economic Perspectives (Summer 1995): 57-80.