Overview

At the beginning of the twentieth century income on a global scale was distributed in a highly unequal manner. People living in the countries of western Europe and North America already had much higher incomes than almost everyone living in Asia, Africa and Latin America. Much of the global inequality that is familiar today was inherited from earlier periods, but there remains substantial uncertainty about how much of it emerged during the nineteenth century and how much was inherited from the eighteenth and earlier centuries. This course explores the origins of global inequality through an examination of the historiography of select themes and episodes that are of particular significance. The underlying objective is to improve awareness and understanding of long-run changes and international differences in income and economic structure. We give particular attention to population change and its relation to natural resources and technology. The focus on population is supported by a brief but systematic treatment of demographic concepts in Massimo Livi-Bacci’s A Concise History of World Population, 2^nd ed. (Oxford: Blackwell, 1997).

Who Should Take the Course?

The course will be of interest to economics, history and business students wishing to improve their understanding of demographic change, long-run economic development and the sources of international inequality. The course is analytically ambitious but not in the mathematical style of most economics courses. Some knowledge of basic economics is essential, but formal economic theory at an advanced level is unnecessary. Some knowledge of history is also needed, although given the scope of this class it is unlikely that anyone will have knowledge of all regions and periods that we examine. Of course, having a stronger background in history and economics will be an advantage. Some experience in reading-intensive courses is highly reccomended.
Outline

The course begins with a review of the experience of long run economic change and the conceptualizations employed by economists and economic historians to understand the historical record. This is followed by a necessarily brief consideration of three developments that were especially instrumental in shaping the modern world: European arrival in the Americas, the inter-continental trade in human slaves and the loss of momentum by the Chinese economy during the early modern era. We focus on the accompanying population changes and their significance.

Next we examine the ‘industrial revolution’ that began in north west Europe during the eighteenth century and spread to the rest of the world. We consider the increased potential for long-run growth as a result of the industrial revolution, the impact on regional inequality within the British Isles, the standard of living of workers, patterns of urbanization and the growth and structure of the international economy. The last point leads to a consideration on the implications for the standard of living and industrial change in other parts of the world.

A fourth section of the course considers the reduction in mortality and fertility that accompanied the industrial revolution. The causal connections among industrialization, economic expansion and demographic change are complex. We are particularly interested in the relationship between mortality decline and the reductions in fertility and family size. The final class in this section will consider the current decline of fertility to below replacement levels in an increasing range of countries.

A final set of meetings permits some consideration of the extraordinary expansion of the East Asian economies in the late twentieth century and differences between the prospects facing low-income countries today and the North Atlantic countries at earlier points in their history. In the last class we discuss the relationship between demographic and economic change based on the literature examined in the course.

Organization

In most weeks the class time is divided into a lecture and a seminar. A week-by-week schedule of readings and topics is given below. Each student will be assigned one or more seminar topics (depending on numbers) during the first week of classes. Reading is required for both seminars and lectures. All required readings are on library reserve but the number of students in the class and the likely congestion at the reserve desk makes it advisable that you prepare for each class well ahead of time.

Evaluation

The course mark is determined as follows:

seminar participation 15%

seminar presentation 15%

essay outline 10%

essay (2 copies) due Nov. 12 40%

book review (2 copies) due Nov. 12 20%

You will be asked to complete an evaluation of this course at some point during the last two weeks of the semester, The Department of Economics policy regarding the condust and use of these evaluations may be found at: http://www.economics.uoguelph.ca/evaluation.html

Seminars

The purpose of the presentation is to summarize the principal significance of the readings and to stimulate an informed discussion about the issues. The nature and organization of the presentation will vary with the topic, the kind of literature that is available and personal styles. The maximum length of presentation is 25 minutes; the seminar itself is 60-75 minutes.

The presentation is not a description of the assigned reading. Everyone in the class is expected to have completed the readings and to have thought about them sufficiently to participate in the group discussion. Therefore no more than a very brief summary is needed. The presenter(s) should aim to illustrate the importance of the topic, identify how an article or book fits into a larger literature and explore the important points on which arguments turn. In some cases it will be appropriate to explicate particularly complicated models or arguments. In other cases, the presenter(s) will want to report upon additional literature in order to situate and motivate the particular readings that have been assigned. With the assistance of the instructor the students making each presentation will prepare a list of supplementary readings for anyone in the class who might like to explore the topic further. The seminar topics are listed below:

1. The Demographic Consequences of 1492 (week of Sept 28)

2. Economic and Demographic Aspects of the Atlantic Slave Trade (week of Oct. 5)

3. East Asian Demographic Patterns (week of Oct. 12)

4. The Underside of the Industrial Revolution in the British Isles (week of Oct. 19)

5. What Happened to the Irish after the Famine? (week of Oct. 26)

6. Is Trade the Engine of Growth? (week of Nov. 2)

7. Did Improvements in Nutrition Contribute to the Mortality Decline? (week of Nov. 9)

8. Has the Fertility Rate Declined Too Far? (week of Nov. 16)

9. A Demographic Explanation for the ‘Miracle’? (week of Nov. 23)

10. The History of Development and the Future for LDCs (week of Dec. 2)

Readings

You should plan to complete most or all of the readings. They average about 150 pages per week. A careful reading of this literature is essential to an understanding of the issues, satisfactory participation in seminars and completion of the essay and book review. An attempt has been made to select articles and books very broadly although, inevitably, some parts of the world receive more coverage than do others. All readings are accessible to the non-specialist.

Because of the volume of literature it may be useful to consider your method of reading. Many people can read more effectively and more quickly if they have some sense of what the author is trying to accomplish in the chapter, book or article. Before beginning to read, therefore, it is useful to examine the first and last few paragraphs, browse the body of the piece and jot down your first impressions. While reading, try to record occasional comments or thoughts that come to mind. Many people find it useful to maintain a journal that facilitates review of the readings and provides a permanent record of first responses to all of the course literature.

Essay

Most people begin the search for an essay topic by investigating further some specific aspect of their seminar presentation. In choosing a topic please remember that broad sweeping topics are almost impossible to do well. A case study approach often provides the basis for a successful essay. In general, you should be trying to develop a topic that is relatively specific with respect to time and place, rather than a general interpretation that lacks empirical focus. Of course, the introduction and conclusion to your study will show why the subject is interesting and/or important in a broad global and long-term context. Probably you will want to examine themes or hypotheses of general interest as they apply to a particular case study. But in most cases the essay will focus on a specific period and region.

Guidelines for the writing of economic history essays are distributed separately. Please read carefully the instructions on how to avoid a charge of plagiarism and also the discussion of academic misconduct in the academic calendar. You are requested to submit two copies of your essay. One copy will be maintained in a filing system established for that purpose within the Economics Department.

An essay outline is due Oct. 15 (no extensions). The essay is due Nov 12. Extensions of the deadline for essay submission may be granted until Nov. 29 (noon) without penalty although the instructor cannot guarantee to provide written comments on the late-arriving essays. Essays submitted between Nov. 30 and Dec 3 receive a penalty of five (5) percentage points per day unless they accompanied by an appropriate note from a doctor, lawyer, etc. No essays will be accepted after Dec. 3 (last day of classes).

Book Review

The book review will examine one of a small number of books identified by the instructor. Each book is a recent interpretative synthesis of global experience.

The review will be evaluated on the basis of its success in analyzing and criticizing the book’s interpretation or argument. About 40% of the grade is for a concise and intelligent summary of the principal contribution or argument of the book. This section of the review has to be brief and to focus on the main points. Another 40% of the grade arises from an evaluation of your critical response to the argument or main points. The final 20% is for being well-written in all the ways that writing can be more or less effective. However, I will not calculate a grade mechanically. Unusual strength in one area can compensate for some weakness in another. Nevertheless, please be careful to avoid a review consisting of a longish descriptive summary – this is not a good summary and of course lacks a critical dimension.

Please submit two copies of each review. The review is due Nov. 12. Extensions until Nov. 29 (noon) may be granted without penalty although the instructor cannot guarantee to provide written comments on these submissions. Reviews submitted between Nov. 30 and Dec 3 receive a penalty of five (5) percentage points per day unless they are accompanied by an appropriate note from a doctor, lawyer, etc. No reviews will be accepted after Dec. 3 (last day of classes).

The following books are available for review. Other titles may be chosen, however they require prior approval from the instructor.

Ester Boserup, Population and Technological Change: A Study in Long-Term Trends (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1981) HB871.B587

Alfred Crosby, Ecological Imperialism: The Biological Expansion of Europe, 900-1900 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1986) GF 50.76

Jared Diamond, Guns, Germs and Steel: The Fate of Human Societies (New York: Norton, 1997) HM206 .D48

Andre Gunder Frank, ReOrient : Global Economy in the Asian Age (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1998) HF1359 .F697

Jack Goody, The East in the West (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996) HF 5605.G656

Eric Jones, The European Miracle: Environments, Economies and Geopolitics in the History of Europe and Asia (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1981) HC240.J57

Eric Jones, Growth Recurring (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1988) HD 78.S65

David Landes, The Wealth and Poverty of Nations (New York: Norton: 1997) HC240.Z9W45

William H. McNeill, The Pursuit of Power (Chicago: University of Chicago, 1982) U 37.M38

Joel Mokyr, The Lever of Riches: Technological Creativity and Economic Progress (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1990) HC 78.T4 M648

Douglas North and Robert Thomas, The Rise of the Western World (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1973) HC 240.N66

Mancur Olsen, The Rise and Decline of Nations (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1982) HD 82.O565

Nathan Rosenberg and L.E. Birdzell jr, How the West Grew Rich (New York: Basic, 1986) HC 240.R67

Class Outline and Required Readings

(L: lecture, S: seminar)

Section I: The Theory and Experience of Economic and Demographic Change

week of Sept. 14

The Recent Experience of Economic Growth (L)

Easterlin, Growth Trimphant, pp 15-53

Maddison, Monitoring the World Economy pp. 19-30

Reynolds, Economic Growth, pp. 15-75

Conceptualizing Long-Term Growth: The Big Picture (L)

Anderson, Explaining Long-Term Economic Change, pp 16-76

Crosby, Ecological Imperialism, pp. 1-7, 269-308 (chs. 1-2, 11-12).

Diamond, Guns, Germs and Steel, pp 13-32 and 405-425

Jones, ‘Introduction’, The European Miracle 2^nd ed., pp. x-xxxiii

Landes, The Wealth and Poverty of Nations, pp. 29-44

week of Sept. 21

Conceptualizing Modern Economic Growth (L)

Easterlin, Growth Triumphant, pp 55-65

Maddison, Monitoring the World Economy, pp 33-57

Mokyr, The Lever of Riches, pp. 3-16

Wrigley, ‘The Limits to Growth’, pp 30-48

A Framework for Demographic Analysis (L)

Livi-Bacci, A Concise History, pp 1-47

Section II: Early Modern Foundations of the Modern World System

week of Sept. 28

The Interpretation of Demographic Experience (L)

Livi-Bacci, A Concise History, pp 47-111

Case Study: The Demographic Consequences of 1492 (S)

Crosby, The Columbian Exchange, pp. 35-63

Cook, pp. Born To Die, pp.1-14, 201-216

Denevan, ‘The Pristine Myth’

Prem, ‘Spanish Colonization’

week of Oct. 5

Origins of the Slave Trade (L)

Thornton, Africa and Africans, pp. 98-125

Manning, Slavery and African Life, pp. 8-59, 110-125

Case Study: Economic and Demographic Aspects of the Atlantic Slave Trade (S)

Manning, Slavery and African Life, pp. 60-109, 126-148, 168-176

Eltis, Economic Growth, pp. 64-71

Klein, ‘The Impact of the Atlantic Slave Trade’

week of Oct. 12

Land and People in China 900-1644 (L)

Elvin, Patterns of the Chinese Past, pp. 113-233, 285-319

Lin, ‘The Needham Puzzle’

Mokyr, Lever of Riches, pp. 209-238

Case Study: East Asian Demographic Patterns (S)

Nakamura and Miyamoto, ‘Social Structure’

Lee and Wang, ‘Malthusian Models and Chinese Realities’

Section III: The Industrial Revolution and Beyond

week of Oct. 19

What Was the Industrial Revolution (L)

Landes, ‘The Fable of the Dead Horse, or The Industrial Revolution Revisited’

Mokyr, The British Industrial Revolution, pp. 1-27

O’Brien, ‘Modern Conceptions of the Industrial Revolution’

Wrigley, Continuity, Chance and Change, pp. 7-33, 68-97

The Impact of the Industrial Revolution in the British Isles (S)

Richards, ‘Margins of the Industrial Revolution’, especially pp. 110-120

Mokyr, The British Industrial Revolution, pp. 118-130

Mokyr and O’Grada, ‘Poor and Getting Poorer?’

Williamson, ‘Did England’s Cities Grow Too Fast?’

week of Oct. 26

The Hopper Lecture by Francisco Sagasti, 7:00 pm, MacNaughton 113 replaces the Tuesday class.

What Happened to the Irish after the Famine? (S)

Guinanne, The Vanishing Irish, pp. 35-58, 79-132, 193-276

week of Nov. 2

Expansion of the International Economy

Curtin, Cross-Cultural Trade, pp. 230-254

Foreman-Peck, A History of the World Economy, pp. 90-153

Latham, The International Economy, pp. 17-40, 65-121

Is Trade the Engine of Growth? (S)

O'Brien, ‘European Economic Development’.

Lal and Rajapatirana, ‘Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Growth’

Lewis, ‘The Slowing Down".

Section IV: Demographic Revolutions

week of Nov. 9

Recent Demographic Experience in the North Atlantic World (L)

Livi-Bacci, A Concise History, pp 112-158

Easterlin, Growth Triumphant, pp. 69-82

Wrigley, ‘Explaining the Rise in Marital Fertility’

Did Improvements in Nutrition Contribute to the Mortality Decline? (S)

Fogel, ‘The Conquest of High Mortality and Hunger’

Livi-Bacci, Population and Nutrition

week of Nov. 16

Recent Demographic Experience in Asia, Africa and Latin America (L)

Livi-Bacci, A Concise History, pp 112-158

Easterlin, Growth Triumphant, pp. 83-112

Has the Fertility Rate Declined Too Far? (S)

Easterlin, Growth Triumphant, pp.113-127

Eberstadt, ‘World Population Implosion?’

Section V: The Late Twentieth Century and Beyond

week of Nov. 23

East Asian Growth since 1960 (L)

World Bank, The East Asian Miracle, especially pp. 27-60, 79-102

Joseph Stiglitz, ‘Some Lessons from the East Asian Miracle’

Takatoshi Ito, ‘What Can Developing Countries Learn?’

A Demographic Explanation for the ‘Miracle’? (S)

Bloom and Williamson, ‘Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles’

week of Dec. 2

The History of Development and the Future for LDCs (S)

Krueger, ‘Benefits and Costs of Late Development’

Population, Resources and the Economy of the 21^st Century (S)

Easterlin, Growth Triumphant, pp. 145-154

Livi-Bacci, A Concise History, pp. 215-242

Dyson, Population and Food, pp. 201-209

References

(available on 2 hr library reserve)

J.L. Anderson, Explaining Long-Term Economic Change (London: Macmillan, 1991). HC51 .A718 1995

D.E. Bloom and J.G. Williamson, ‘Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in

Emerging Asia’, World Bank Economic Review vol. 12 n. 3 (1998), pp. 419-455. UN9 MG W59

Nobel David Cook, Born To Die: Disease and New World Conquest, 1492-1650 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998) E59.D58 C66 1998

Alfred Crosby, The Columbian Exchange: Biological and Cultural Consequences of 1492 (Westport Connecticut: Greenwood, 1972). E98.D6C7

Alfred Crosby, Ecological Imperialism: The Biological Expansion of Europe, 900-1900 (Cambridge: Cambridge Univ. Press, 1986). GF 50.76

Philip Curtin, Cross-Cultural Trade in World History (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1984). HF 352.C87

William Denevan, "The Pristine Myth: The Landscape of the Americas in 1492", Annals of the American Association of Geographers v. 82 n. 3 (Sept. 1992), pp. 369-385. E 110.A43

Jared Diamond, Guns, Germs and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies (New York: Norton, 1997) HM206 .D48

Tim Dyson, Population and Food: Global Trends and Future Prospects (London, Routledge, 1995). HD9000.5 .D97

Richard Easterlin, Growth Triumphant: The Twenty-First Century in Historical Perspective (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1996). HD75.E168 1996

Nicholas Eberstadt, ‘World Population Implosion?’, The Public Interest, n. 129 (fall 1997), pp. 3-22. H 1.P86

David Eltis, Economic Growth and the Ending of the Transatlantic Slave Trade (New York: Oxford University Press, 1987). HT 1162.E48

Mark Elvin, Patterns of the Chinese Past (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1973). DS 735.E48

Robert Fogel, ‘The Conquest of High Mortality and Hunger in Euope and America’, p. 33-71 in Higonnet et al, Favourites of Fortune. HC79 .T4F38

James Foreman-Peck, A History of the World Economy: International Economic Relations since 1850, 2^nd edition, (Hempel Hemstead: Harvester Wheatsheaf, 1995). HC 54.F565 1995

Tim Guinnane, The Vanishing Irish: Households, Migration and the Rural Economy in Ireland, 1850-1914 (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1997). HB3589 .G84

Patrice Higonnet, David Landes and Henry Rosovsky, eds., Favourites of Fortune: Technology, Growth and Economic Development since the Industrial Revolution (Cambridge MA: Harvard University Press, 1991). HC79 .T4F38

Takatoshi Ito, ‘What Can Developing Countries Learn from East Asian Economic Growth’, pp. 183-200 in Boris Pleskovic and Joseph Stiglitz, eds., Annual World Bank Conference on Development Ecoomics (Washington: World Bank, 1997) UN9 MG 97A58

Eric Jones, The European Miracle: Environments, Economies and Geopolitics in the History of Europe and Asia, 2^nd edition (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1987) HC240.J57

Martin Klein, "The Impact of the Atlantic Slave Trade on the Societies of the Western Sudan", pp. 25-48 in Joseph Inikori and Stanley Engerman, eds., The Atlantic Slave Trade: Effects on Economies, Societies and Peoples in Africa, the Americas and Europe (Durham: Duke University Press, 1992). HT 855.A85

Anne O. Krueger, ‘Benefits and Costs of Late Development’, pp. 459-481 in Higonnet et al eds., Favourites of Fortune HC79 .T4F38

Deepak Lal and Sarath Rajapatirana, ‘Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Growth in Developing Countries’, World Bank Research Observer vol. 2 n. 2 (July 1987), pp. 189-218 UN9 MG R26

David Landes, ‘The Fable of the Dead Horse, or The Industrial Revolution Revisited’, pp. 132-170 in Mokyr, The British Industrial Revolution: An Economic Perspective. HC 254.5.B88

David Landes, The Wealth and Poverty of Nations (New York: Norton, 1998) HC240.Z9W45

A.J. Latham, The International Economy and the Underdeveloped World, 1865-1914 (London: Croom Helm, 1978). HC 59.7 L38

Jame Lee and Wang Feng, ‘Malthusian Models and Chinese Realities: China’s Demographic System 1700-2000’, Population and Development Review vol. 25 no. 1 (March 1999), pp. 33-66 HD 848.P62

W.A. Lewis, "The Slowing Down of the Engine of Growth", American Economic Review 70 (1980), pp. 555-564. HB 1.A42

Justin Yifu Lin, ‘The Needham Puzzle: Why the Industrial Revolution Did Not Originate in China’, Economic Development and Cultural Change v. 43 no. 2 (Jan 1995), pp. 269-292 HC 10.C453

Massimo Livi-Bacci, A Concise History of World Population, 2^nd ediiton, translated by Carl Ipsen (Oxford: Blackwell, 1992). HB 871.L56513

Massimo Livi-Bacci, Population and Nutrition: An Essay on European Demographic History (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990) HB 3581.L5813

Angus Maddison, Monitoring the World Economy 1820-1992 (Paris: OECD, 1995. ZZ ED86 95M58

Patrick Manning, Slavery and African Life (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990). HT 1321.M36

Joel Mokyr, The Lever of Riches: Technological Creativity and Economic Progress (New York: Oxford University Press, 1990) HC 78.T4 M648

Joel Mokyr, ed., The British Industrial Revolution: An Economic Perspective (Boulder: Westview, 1993). HC 254.5.B88

Joel Mokyr and Cormac O’Grada, ‘Poor and Getting Poorer? Living Standards in Ireland before the Famine’, Economic History Review XLI no. 2 (May 1988), pp. 209-235 HC 10.E4

James Nakamura and Matao Miyamoto, "Social Structure and Population Change: A study of Tokugawa Japan and Ch'ing China", Economic Development and Cultural Change vol. 30 no. 2 (Jan. 1982), pp. 229-270. HC 10.C453

Patrick O'Brien, "European Economic Development: The Contribution of the Periphery", Economic History Review XXXV no. 1 (Feb. 1982), pp. 1-18. HC 10.E4

Patrick O’Brien, ‘Introduction: Modern Conceptions about the Industrial Revolution’, pp. 1-30 in O’Brien and Quinalt, eds., The Industrial Revolution and British Society HC 254.5.I383

Patrick O’Brien and Roland Quinalt, eds., The Industrial Revolution and British Society (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1993) HC 254.5.I383

Hanns Prem, "Spanish Colonization and Indian Property in Central Mexico, 1521-1620", Annals of the American Association of Geographers v. 82 n. 3 (Sept. 1992), pp. 440-460. E 110.A43

Lloyd Reynolds, Economic Growth in the Third World: An Introduction (New Haven: Yale Univ. Press, 1985). HC 59.7.R476 This book is an excerpt from the same author's Economic Growth in the Third World: 1850-1980 (New Haven: Yale Univ. Press, 1985). HC 59.7.R475

Joseph Stiglitz, ‘Some Lessons from the East Asian Miracle’, World Bank Research Observer vol. 11 n. 2 (Aug. 1996), pp. 151-177. UN9 MG R26

Thornton, Africa and Africans in the Making of the Atlantic World, 2^nd ed. (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press). DT 31.T516

Jeffrey G. Williamson, ‘Did England’s Cities Grow Too Fast during the Industrial Revolution’, pp. 359-394 in Higonnet et al, eds., Favourites of Fortune. HC79 .T4F38

World Bank, The East Asian Miracle: Economic Growth and Public Policy (New York: Oxford University Press, 1993) UN9 MG 93E11

E.A. Wrigley, Continuity, Chance and Change: The Character of the Industrial Revolution in England (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press 1988), HC255.W83

E.A. Wrigley, ‘The Limits to Growth: Malthus and the Classical Economists’, pp. 30-48 in Michael Teitelbaum and Jay Winter, eds., Population and Resources in Western Traditions, a supplement to Population and Development Review v. 14 1998 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1989) HB 871.P6

E.A. Wrigley, ‘Explaining the Rise in Marital Fertility in England in the Long Eighteenth Century’, Economic History Review vol. LI no. 3 (August 1998), pp. 435-464. HC 10.E4

Essay Outline

1. Statement of Thesis, Hypothesis or Theme (1-3 sentences):

2. Outline of Argument (1 page):

3. Please attach a 1-page bibliography of the principal works that you will examine.