Satomi Kurosu, International Research Center for Japanese Studies

This study examines fertility levels and age at marriage among peasants in 19th-century Japan and assesses their relationship to household status and regional economic/agricultural development. The own-children method and SMAM (singulate mean age at marriage) were applied to the 1870 South-Tama household registers of 35 villages with a total population of 10,211, and also to Shumon-Aratame-Cho (SAC) records from one of the 35 villages with a population fluctuating between 400-600 (1804-1870). The area of study, South-Tama, is located west of Tokyo. The observed period is at the eve of industrialization when the silk-industry and general economy were developing, and the area was being incorporated into larger markets. Overall, the estimates of nuptiality (21.64) and marital fertility (5.07 with q0=180 assumption) conform well to the average level suggested by previous studies (early age at marriage and low fertility level compared to European counterparts) which used other sources and methods. The estimates for different economic groups in the 1870 household register revealed that the lower the economic status of the households, the later the age at marriage of women and the fewer number of children they bear. The positive relationship between the economic status and fertility was maintained even after applying a higher mortality assumption for the low status group. The trend of TFR based on the 1804-1870 SAC records from one of the 35 villages also supported the findings that the level was at around 4.60, with fluctuation caused by famine and spread of disease. Although the fertility trend is not entirely clear, an indication of a sustainable fertility increase was suggested based on the comparison with different mortality assumptions. Age at marriage showed clearer increase towards the end of observation period. The principle of universal marriage was observed throughout the 19th century. These findings support the theoretical implication of previous studies; that the moderate rise of fertility contributed to the population growth in farming villages, which went hand in hand with economic development. Moreover, the rise in age at marriage and fertility came together in the silk-industry developing area.