EH.Net Answers from the Professor

The Question

Where can I find information/articles regarding the parallels between the recent "Dot com" economic cycle and that of similar cycles historically, particularly that of 1720s England, which I am told is remarkably similar?

The Answer

I would be wary about comparisons between the dot com phenomenon and the South Sea "bubble" of 1720. Stories about the South Sea bubble are dominated by incidents of bribe-taking and chicanery, while the dot com cycle has little trace of this. On the other hand, in both cases many investors got swept up with the idea that great profits could be made easily.

For sources on the South Sea bubble, check:
1. The Bubble Project at http://is.dal.ca/~dmcneil/bubble.html. Its team of researchers includes Larry Neal, a well-respected economic historian.
2. "South Sea Bubble" by Larry Neal in _Business Cycles and Depressions: An Encyclopedia_ edited by David Glasner.
3. Peter Garber's _Famous First Bubbles_, which downplays claims that this and other early "bubbles" were in fact irrational manias. A fairly critical review of this can be found at http://eh.net/bookreviews/library/0281.shtml.
4. Charles Kindleberger's _Manias, Panics, and Crashes_

In addition to the Kindleberger book, I would recommend:
* John Kenneth Galbraith's A SHORT HISTORY OF FINANCIAL EUPHORIA
* the chapter (ch. 2, I think) of Burton Malkiel's A RANDOM WALK DOWN WALL
STREET that deals with past speculative bubbles

Robert Shiller's IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE might have some info on past bubbles, too.