Ladies and gentlemen,

On behalf of the Bavarian State Government and of State Minister Zehetmair in particular, I am delighted to be able to welcome you here in the Munich Residenz this evening. As State Secretary in the Ministry of Education, Culture, Science and Art, it is always a special pleasure for me to be able to welcome an important, international conference to Bavaria and spend an interesting evening with high-caliber scientists. It is an honour for us all that The Cliometric Society has selected Munich as the venue for its third World Conference, following the first Conference in the United States in 1985 and the second Conference in Spain in 1989.

I must however admit that initially I was rather perplexed when I was asked whether I could convey a welcome from the Bavarian State Government on the occasion of the World Conference of The Cliometric Society. At first, the term ÔcliometryÕ did not mean too much to me, a fact for which I hope you will pardon me. Even breaking down the world cliometry into its separate components, namely the concepts of ÔClioÓ, the name of the Muse of the historical sciences and ÔmetryÕ, the art of measuring, at first only provided me with an inkling of what cliometry could mean.

In the meantime, I have of course informed myself and learnt that the term cliometry in fact cloaks New Economic History. And I must say that I am exceptionally impressed at how your discipline is endeavouring, with the aid of mathematics and statistical methods, to analyse and evaluate past economic developments. With the help of the approaches and methodology you have developed, economic theories can be scrutinised, verified or refuted. In this connection I should just like to recall the work of the Nobel Prize winner, Robert Fogel, who, as far as I know, is with us this evening.

With his investigation of the connection between economic growth and railway construction, Robert Fogel modified the theory advocated by Rostow and Schumpeter that major inventions played a vital role in modern economic growth. He succeeded in calculating with exceptional accuracy that the gross national product of the United States would only have been some three percent lower without the invention of the railways than with the railways, provided that other, alternative means of transport, such as steam ships for example, were taken in account. I call this an impressive achievement and a good example of what your specialised field is capable of accomplishing. If I see it correctly, it was this work which created the breakthrough for the cliometric method in economic history.

Ladies and gentlemen, your discipline offers proof that right at the intersection of two fields of research, in this case, the historical sciences and the economic sciences, interesting perspectives and opportunities are opening up.

Such interlinking of the sciences will continue to grow in importance in the future. And your discipline provides evidence that the historical sciences are not, as frequently maintained, Ôacademic amusementÕ which may be of interest to research workers in their ivory towers, but have no relevance for the real world. Your science demonstrates that a look into the past offers the possibility to reexamine prevailing theories and develop new trains of thought. From this aspect, involvement with the past is an indispensable prerequisite for conscientious planning of the future. The experiences of the past are the basis for the decisions of today and for shaping the future.

May I wish you a successful conference with absorbing presentations and lively discussions. I am certain that this wish will come true. However, I also hope that despite the volume of work, you will find time to get to know our beautiful state capital of Munich and its surroundings. As State Secretary in a Ministry responsible not only for the sciences, but also for the arts, I can assure you it will be worth your while.

Thank you.